ROTTEN TOMATOES: Box Office Guru Preview: "Silver Surfer" Sails into Multiplexes

Box Office Guru Preview: "Silver Surfer" Sails into Multiplexes

by Gitesh Pandya | June 14, 2007

With schools letting out for the summer, Hollywood rolls out a pair of PG-rated films hoping to attract kids to the multiplexes with some mindless fun.

Fox unleashes "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" which looks to give the box office its seventh consecutive weekend ruled by a sequel. Warner Bros. counters the testosterone effects pic with its teen girl story "Nancy Drew" while The Weinstein Co. mixes the formulas by opening its all-female action flick "DOA: Dead or Alive."

Marvel super heroes look to top the charts for the third time this year with the new "Fantastic Four" film which reunites the main cast members of the first pic. That comic book actioner opened to a sturdy $56.1M in July 2005 and went on to gross $154.7M domestically and over $330M worldwide. Though panned by critics, it got the franchise going and Fox hopes to keep the cash registers ringing this summer. The studio aims to follow the same pattern it saw for its other Marvel ensemble series. 2000's "X-Men" debuted to $54.5M and reached a $157.3M final with the 2003 and 2006 followups each grossing more and more.

But "Silver Surfer" is different from "X2: X-Men United" which bowed to $85.6M. That mutant sequel earned strong reviews, followed a predecessor that was well-received, and opened at the beginning of May when there was no competition. The current sequel fatigue that has been hitting the box office could prevent "Four" from expanding beyond its core base. The studio gets credit for building the marketing campaign around the Silver Surfer character so it feels like it is offering something new. The milder PG rating could allow it to reach a broader audience, but many parents may not even notice as the ads make it look like all the other PG-13 comic pics. Cruising into over 3,800 theaters, "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" could take in around $53M this weekend.

"FF 2: ROTSS"

"Nancy Drew" hits the big screen with the teen sleuth from the popular mystery books moving to California to find herself in the middle of an unsolved case. The PG-rated film should see most of its business from the under-18 female set however since the property has been around for so long, it could bring in some older folks too. With Unfabulous star Emma Roberts as the title character, the Warner Bros. release offers little starpower beyond its core demographic. The studio will have to rely on the brand name and the current lack of films exciting girls. The turnout could be similar to what Warners saw two years ago in June 2005 with "The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants" which bowed to $9.8M over three days and $13.6M over its five-day launch. Opening in 2,612 theaters, "Nancy Drew" might debut with around $12M.

"Nancy Drew"

The videogame-inspired action film "DOA: Dead or Alive" gets a quiet release in 505 theaters on Friday. A babes-in-bikinis fight flick, the Weinstein Co. release is not being pushed too feverishly and will have little chance of drawing in business against the more high-profile action films out there now. With no major stars, the much-delayed PG-13 film might find itself with $1M or less this weekend.

"DOA: Dead Or Alive"

"Ocean's Thirteen" was met with the smallest jackpot ever won by the franchise last weekend. "Ocean's Twelve" fell by 53% in its second weekend in December 2004. The new installment should also see a steep drop given that it is the third time around and people are not exactly loving the pic. Warner Bros. could suffer a 55% decline and collect about $16M for a ten-day cume of $67M.

"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" has been dropping by more than 50% each weekend and with the new "Fantastic Four" sequel arriving, this frame should be no different. Look for sales to get sliced in half and dip to about $11M pushing the domestic cume to $272M.

A 30% drop could be in the works for "Knocked Up" which will not face much competition for adults. Look for a $14M weekend giving the Universal comedy $90M in 17 days.

LAST YEAR: The Disney/Pixar collaboration "Cars" held onto the top spot for a second weekend with $33.7M for a reasonable drop of 44%. The Jack Black comedy "Nacho Libre" led the newcomers with an opening of $28.3M on its way to $80.2M for Paramount. "The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift" followed in third with a $24M bow while "The Lake House" debuted in fourth with $13.6M. Final grosses reached $62.5M for Universal's racing sequel and $52.3M for the Warner Bros. romance. Jennifer Aniston's "The Break-Up" ranked fifth with $9.8M in its third frame. The kidpic "Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties" opened in seventh with $7.3M for Fox on its way to $28.4M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Related Items

Movie:	Knocked Up
	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
	Ocean's Thirteen
	The Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
	DOA: Dead or Alive
	The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift
	Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties
	Cars
	Nacho Libre
	The Break-Up
	X-Men
	X2: X-Men United
	Ocean's Twelve
	The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants
	Fantastic Four
	The Lake House
Celeb:	Jack Black
	Emma Roberts
	Jennifer Aniston

(1-11 of 11 posts) | Reply

SplendidIsolation writes:
on Jun 14 2007 04:53 PM

I predict $47 million for fantastic 4
$8 million for nancy drew
$600,000 for DOA

(Reply to this)

Mudhole writes:
on Jun 14 2007 04:57 PM

[b]Question[/b]
So I've got a question for all the geniuses who write for RT: Why do you always insist on making it seem like Ocean's 13 was some horrible bomb? Every mention of the film here is followed by "the film opened to the most miniscule box office ever for the franchise." The three films have opened to something like $38 million, $39 million, $37 million. Big freaking deal. You're all idiots.

Also, I saw FF2 last night, and it was piss. I predict around $38 million opening weekend.

(Reply to this)

rdproductions writes:
on Jun 14 2007 05:42 PM

I say $49 million for Fantastic Four 2, $7 million for Nancy Drew, and even less than $100 thousand for DOA.

(Reply to this)

nalindra writes:
on Jun 14 2007 05:44 PM

[b]Uncool[/b]
Its too bad that ocean's 13 is always being degraded here coz its the best summer movie sequel so far.Even the user ratings are 79 percent which is for all this season's sequels the best.Its sad to see movies like FF doing more than 50 million coz FF is crap.I hope that this does fail then there'll be no more FF sequels.None of the sequels will be this bad and hopes it earns less than 40 million though I know that won't happen.We have watched worst sequels like shrek 3 and pirates 3 so why oh why is ocean's 13 any different,its better not worse.

(Reply to this)

mojodaddy writes:
on Jun 14 2007 10:13 PM

I didnt know FF2 was only PG.

(Reply to this)

kendrith1975 writes:
on Jun 14 2007 11:16 PM

[b]mudhole, OCEAN 13 opened to 36 million![/b]
I think you should calm down. I am also a fan of OCEAN 13, which actually opened to 36.1 million, not 37.1, after final grosses tabulated. That means it was actually off 2 million from its predecessor. While just a few million's off is not a big deal, the fact is history is working against OCEAN 13's favour to at least eclipse OCEAN's 12 box office. Of course I wish it would not happen. But it is certainly not helping that OCEAN 13's daily box office has dropped off considerably mid-week.

For this coming weekend, boxofficeguru is predicting a sizable 55% fall for 13 despite not much good alternatives for adult audiences debuting in the market. I for one could not care for FANTASTIC FOUR seeing its horrible reviews. Most of the analyst out there, are heavily betting that sequels/franchise/genre fatigue is really going to hurt all other unoriginal Hollywood movies for the rest of this summer, as witness by diminishing returns for all the May 3quels and all the horror movies out in the market have underperformed for months already. Obviously, boxofficeguru's claim that OCEAN 13 is not well-liked is a scandal, which seems to suggest many box office watchers are not paying attention that OCEAN's 13 is actually more well-liked than its predecessor among fans and other critics. Bear in mind that last week boxofficeguru already suggest that moviegoers will not care about 13 getting better reviews because everybody knew what the movie is going to offer.

That means for all of us OCEAN 13's fans, we need to try harder to get your friends who haven't seen the movie yet to support the film, or else, we are not likely to see a OCEAN's 14 at all.

(Reply to this)

nalindra writes:
on Jun 15 2007 01:20 AM

[b]So far the best[/b]
If people can afford to watch movies like pirates 3 and shrek 3 I don't know why they can't watch or at least give ocean's 13 a chance.So far of all the movies 13 HAS BEEN THE BEST MOVIE.

Why?coz its has an enjoyable story line that'll make u laugh througout the movie and an impossible heist and its not that damn long like pirates 3.

So far this movie is the only worthwhile movie this summer and I would insist all to give it a chance and try it out.Its definetely better than 12 this weeks FF and previous sequels that was loaded with special effects.

(Reply to this)

chosenone86 writes:
on Jun 15 2007 05:48 AM

"Ocean's 13' may be the best of the sequels out so far this summer , but that's not really saying much. In fact, after "Ocean's 12", the movie seems just as unnecessary as FF 2, only FF2 is more fun. The daily box office for "13" is dropping because it doesn't really offer the audience anything new. "Knocked Up", a non-sequel, is doing better than expected, and I am willing to bet "Transformers" will leave every other blockbuster in the dust when it opens.

(Reply to this)

nalindra writes:
on Jun 15 2007 07:39 AM

[b]So untrue!!!![/b]
FF2 can't be said as fun,if u check the user reviews u'll see that it has a user rating below 40 percent.What more can I say so it cannot be catogarized as fun.

As for something new nothing this year gave us anything new exept maybe 300.All relied on CGI and publicity.So again that is not a reason not to watch ocean's 13.

Transformers lack a story as engaging as terminator franchise and the whole foundation is lame.The trailers show only destruction and nothing else sure it'll be a blockbuster but that doesn't mean its good.

Movies like spiderman 2,batman begins and x-men had a solid foundation for continuation which I am sad to say transformers deeply lacks and the same goes for this year's FF 2.

(Reply to this)

synergyred writes:
on Jun 15 2007 07:33 PM

I'm disgusted with what they did to Nancy Drew. Proof that Hollywood loved to take a shit on all my childhood favorites.

I'll be seeing Rise of the Silver Surfer tomorrow, more out of curiosity than anything else. Although, is it just me or does the normally flawlessly beautiful Jessica Alba look really tired and almost sick in the trailers? It seems like who ever did her makeup for the film should have been fired.

(Reply to this)

kendrith1975 writes:
on Jun 15 2007 07:52 PM

[b]OCEAN'S 13 weekly box office encouraging[/b]
Finally there is one glimmer of hope for OCEAN 13: its first week box office manage to surpass 12 and 11 by a couple 100K. While previously stated that 13's day to day mid-week business had dropped off considerably, apparently it was still stronger than those respective grosses for 12 and 11 (of course as boxofficeguru always used to say, ticket prices inflation maybe the key to this).
Still, starting off relatively 'weak' out of the gate, it is still a sweet result, and give us more hope that its sophomore dropoff may not be as drastic as originally thought. I am looking for an optimistic 42-45% drop this weekend.

As for FANTASTIC FOUR, if sequel fatigue is any indication, I do not understand how a not well-liked franchise's sequel will manage to gross almost as much as the original out of the gate (boxofficeguru is predicting 53 million opening, further indication how box office analyst maybe so biased and random in their predictions). I think boxofficeguru maybe better off using LARA CROFT TOMB RAIDER as the benchmark for measuring sequels that supposedly received better reviews against its awfully received predecessor, but still opened disastrously.
If FF2 is not going to do that bad, it is still going to open less than its original, say 15% below its predecessor, which means a 47.8 million opening.

(Reply to this)