Box Office Guru Preview: Jovovich vs. Alba in Multiplex Mayhem
Resident Evil: Extinction takes on Good Luck Chuck
Jodie Foster will find herself in the middle of a catfight over the number one spot this weekend. The star of current chart-topper The Brave One will face challenges from Milla Jovovich's new action sequel Resident Evil: Extinction, Jessica Alba's romantic comedy Good Luck Chuck, and the Amanda Bynes college laugher Sydney White. With adult-skewing dramas ruling the box office over the past couple of weeks, teens and young adults should be out in full force this weekend thanks to the selection of new options.
Deadly viruses and killer zombies are back in Sony's Extinction, the latest and final chapter in its video game-inspired action-horror franchise. The series has been a popular one with the first Resident Evil opening to $17.7M in March 2002 and its sequel Resident Evil: Apocalypse debuting to a stronger $23M in September 2004. Each averaged about $7,000 over the debut frame. The R-rated Extinction will play to the converted and is not likely to generate any new fans. In fact, some will drop out thinking a third helping is a bit too much. Still the built-in audience of young adults and gamers plus a solid marketing push guarantee a top spot launch. Attacking over 2,700 locations, Resident Evil: Extinction could capture roughly $20M over the three-day debut period.
Milla Jovovich fights a zombie in Resident Evil: Extinction
Dane Cook plays a dude whose every ex-girlfriend ends up engaged to the next guy she dates in the romantic comedy Good Luck Chuck. Jessica Alba co-stars in the R-rated release from Lionsgate which will use starpower to attract an audience of older teens and young adults. Last October Cook teamed up with another Jessica, Simpson that time, in the PG-13 comedy Employee of the Month which bowed to $11.4M. The marketing on Chuck has been good and cross-gender appeal seems solid too, although the rating could cut into business from younger teens who will certainly want to see this picture. Falling into 2,612 theaters, Good Luck Chuck may gross about $12M this weekend.
Jessica Alba and Dane Cook in Good Luck Chuck
Amanda Bynes headlines the college comedy Sydney White playing a freshman caught between the popular sorority sisters and her nerdy pals. The PG-13 film will aim itself squarely at teens and college students and should skew a bit more female. Hollywood has had a tough time reaching young females recently with flops like Nancy Drew ($6.8M opening), Bratz ($4.2M), and Gracie ($1.4M) all stalling. Sydney will try to appeal to the same crowd that powered Bynes' comedy She's the Man to $10.7M in March 2006. However the marketing push is not as strong and the release will not be as wide so the three-day take will be softer. The marketplace's current lack of offerings for this audience creates a great opportunity for a good marketable film to come in a loot some cash. But Sydney just doesn't seem to have what it takes to score a big opening. Pledging in over 1,900 theaters, Sydney White could debut with around $6M.
Amanda Bynes in Sydney White
Last weekend, David Cronenberg's latest crime thriller Eastern Promises enjoyed a limited release bow that was basically a carbon copy of his last film A History of Violence which opened to $515,992 from 14 theaters in September 2005 for a potent $36,857 average. Focus is now matching History's sophomore weekend expansion pattern by widening Promises to 1,404 locations nationwide. History in its second session expanded to 1,340 sites and grossed $8.1M for a solid $6,047 average. Reviews and buzz for Promises is just as good so a similar performance could be in the works. Ticket prices are slightly higher, but so are the number of films also targeting an adult audience. In fact, the top five this weekend should boast mostly R-rated fare. For this weekend, look for Eastern Promises to take in about $8M.
Eastern Promises
In the arthouse scene, which is quickly getting more crowded with each passing week, Brad Pitt rolls in as both actor and producer in the Old West drama The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. Warner Bros. is unleashing the R-rated pic in only 15 theaters in New York, Los Angeles, Toronto, and Austin hoping to generate a strong average and positive word of mouth. Pitt already scored the Best Actor trophy for his portrayal of the famous outlaw at the Venice International Film Festival and is making a bid for kudos attention over the months ahead. Reviews have been mostly positive and an expansion is planned for the coming weeks.
The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
After a less-than-spectacular number one opening, Jodie Foster's revenge thriller The Brave One will try to fend off competition for its mature adult audience from the expansion of Eastern Promises. The frame's three newbies should play to other audience segments. A 45% drop would give Warner Bros. about $7.5M for the weekend and a ten-day cume of $25M which would be about how much Foster's last starring vehicle Flightplan grossed in only its first three days.
3:10 to Yuma posted a solid hold last weekend and this time a similar drop could result. The Lionsgate release might dip by 35% to around $6M raising the total to $37M after 17 days.
LAST YEAR: Johnny Knoxville and his partners in crime landed a big number one opening for Jackass: Number Two which bowed to $29M. The Paramount sequel went on to collect $72.8M. Focus debuted in second with another R-rated film aimed at young men, the Jet Li actioner Fearless, which grossed $10.6M. The historical pic reached $24.6M. Sony's football drama Gridiron Gang dropped two spots to third with $9.5M in its sophomore frame. Opening poorly in fourth was the action flick Flyboys with only $6M for MGM on its way to $13.1M. The animated film Everyone's Hero rounded out the top five with $4.7M. Premiering to dismal results was the Sean Penn vehicle All the King's Men (the third new release to take place in the past) with $3.7M for Sony. It quickly ended its run with a poor $7.2M.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
Deadly viruses and killer zombies are back in Sony's Extinction, the latest and final chapter in its video game-inspired action-horror franchise. The series has been a popular one with the first Resident Evil opening to $17.7M in March 2002 and its sequel Resident Evil: Apocalypse debuting to a stronger $23M in September 2004. Each averaged about $7,000 over the debut frame. The R-rated Extinction will play to the converted and is not likely to generate any new fans. In fact, some will drop out thinking a third helping is a bit too much. Still the built-in audience of young adults and gamers plus a solid marketing push guarantee a top spot launch. Attacking over 2,700 locations, Resident Evil: Extinction could capture roughly $20M over the three-day debut period.
Milla Jovovich fights a zombie in Resident Evil: Extinction
Dane Cook plays a dude whose every ex-girlfriend ends up engaged to the next guy she dates in the romantic comedy Good Luck Chuck. Jessica Alba co-stars in the R-rated release from Lionsgate which will use starpower to attract an audience of older teens and young adults. Last October Cook teamed up with another Jessica, Simpson that time, in the PG-13 comedy Employee of the Month which bowed to $11.4M. The marketing on Chuck has been good and cross-gender appeal seems solid too, although the rating could cut into business from younger teens who will certainly want to see this picture. Falling into 2,612 theaters, Good Luck Chuck may gross about $12M this weekend.
Jessica Alba and Dane Cook in Good Luck Chuck
Amanda Bynes headlines the college comedy Sydney White playing a freshman caught between the popular sorority sisters and her nerdy pals. The PG-13 film will aim itself squarely at teens and college students and should skew a bit more female. Hollywood has had a tough time reaching young females recently with flops like Nancy Drew ($6.8M opening), Bratz ($4.2M), and Gracie ($1.4M) all stalling. Sydney will try to appeal to the same crowd that powered Bynes' comedy She's the Man to $10.7M in March 2006. However the marketing push is not as strong and the release will not be as wide so the three-day take will be softer. The marketplace's current lack of offerings for this audience creates a great opportunity for a good marketable film to come in a loot some cash. But Sydney just doesn't seem to have what it takes to score a big opening. Pledging in over 1,900 theaters, Sydney White could debut with around $6M.
Amanda Bynes in Sydney White
Last weekend, David Cronenberg's latest crime thriller Eastern Promises enjoyed a limited release bow that was basically a carbon copy of his last film A History of Violence which opened to $515,992 from 14 theaters in September 2005 for a potent $36,857 average. Focus is now matching History's sophomore weekend expansion pattern by widening Promises to 1,404 locations nationwide. History in its second session expanded to 1,340 sites and grossed $8.1M for a solid $6,047 average. Reviews and buzz for Promises is just as good so a similar performance could be in the works. Ticket prices are slightly higher, but so are the number of films also targeting an adult audience. In fact, the top five this weekend should boast mostly R-rated fare. For this weekend, look for Eastern Promises to take in about $8M.
Eastern Promises
In the arthouse scene, which is quickly getting more crowded with each passing week, Brad Pitt rolls in as both actor and producer in the Old West drama The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. Warner Bros. is unleashing the R-rated pic in only 15 theaters in New York, Los Angeles, Toronto, and Austin hoping to generate a strong average and positive word of mouth. Pitt already scored the Best Actor trophy for his portrayal of the famous outlaw at the Venice International Film Festival and is making a bid for kudos attention over the months ahead. Reviews have been mostly positive and an expansion is planned for the coming weeks.
The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
After a less-than-spectacular number one opening, Jodie Foster's revenge thriller The Brave One will try to fend off competition for its mature adult audience from the expansion of Eastern Promises. The frame's three newbies should play to other audience segments. A 45% drop would give Warner Bros. about $7.5M for the weekend and a ten-day cume of $25M which would be about how much Foster's last starring vehicle Flightplan grossed in only its first three days.
3:10 to Yuma posted a solid hold last weekend and this time a similar drop could result. The Lionsgate release might dip by 35% to around $6M raising the total to $37M after 17 days.
LAST YEAR: Johnny Knoxville and his partners in crime landed a big number one opening for Jackass: Number Two which bowed to $29M. The Paramount sequel went on to collect $72.8M. Focus debuted in second with another R-rated film aimed at young men, the Jet Li actioner Fearless, which grossed $10.6M. The historical pic reached $24.6M. Sony's football drama Gridiron Gang dropped two spots to third with $9.5M in its sophomore frame. Opening poorly in fourth was the action flick Flyboys with only $6M for MGM on its way to $13.1M. The animated film Everyone's Hero rounded out the top five with $4.7M. Premiering to dismal results was the Sean Penn vehicle All the King's Men (the third new release to take place in the past) with $3.7M for Sony. It quickly ended its run with a poor $7.2M.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
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(1-7 of 7 posts) | Reply
 on Sep 21 2007 01:06 AM "The marketing on Chuck has been good and cross-gender appeal seems solid too..." WHAT? The marketing has been an absolute mess, as until recently, the advertising in the last couple of months had made it look like a completely different movie from the film that was advertised around the time of "Knocked Up". The early ads made it look more like what it probably is, whereas the ads in the later part of the summer made it look like a movie where people were getting hit in the face every 20 seconds, with no mention of the STORY whatsoever. It's as though Lionsgate KNEW they were sitting on junk and were just looking for ANY way to push the thing on unsuspecting audiences. People on other message boards have said "You don't know what you're talking about, they're just showing other aspects of the movie! Grrrrr! OMG I love Dane Cook!", but there's a difference between showing different aspects of the movie and making it look like a completely different movie altogether. For instance the trailer for "Transformers" that showed in front of more family-friendly fare played up more of the humor and transforming effects, while the ad that ran before less kid-friendly stuff at the same time played up the violence and gunplay. About 80% of the trailers were the same, but they switched out some shots here and there. Or, in some cases, like with the "Spider-Man 3" trailers, you might have more of a focus on different characters and where they fit into the storylines. If "Good Luck Chuck" was doing something like that though, pitching different things to different audiences, that would make sense, but instead, the same trailer that's been running on TV also ran in front of "Superbad" when the racier one would have helped more with that particular audience if it hadn't been completely replaced. I know there's a red band trailer floating around, and I've seen it, but that's pretty much only going to be seen online, and the people that seek it out already know better. "Falling into 2,612 theaters, Good Luck Chuck may gross about $12M this weekend." I really, really doubt this. Jessica Alba can't open a movie, at least not on her own without a big ensemble cast or something that's special effects-heavy, and Dane Cook can't open a movie PERIOD. It'll most likely be joining "Brothers Solomon" on the shelves at Blockbuster sooner than later. The R-rating will keep the kids away (it'll cut down on paid admissions anyway, which is what really counts, regardless of whether or not anyone really even WANTS to sneak in) which ought to do some damage. Likely, the only reason that "Employee of the Month" even came close to $12 on its opening is BECAUSE it was a PG-13 flick that teens could buy their way into and then wander in and out of for 90 minutes, either hanging out with their friends or trying to sneak into "Jackass" or whatever else was out at the time that they couldn't get into. "Sydney White", on the other hand, looks to be completely dead on arrival. I work at a movie theater and I STILL haven't seen a single trailer for it, but I don't watch the Disney Channel or Nickelodeon, which are likely about the only places where the ad would show up. I'm going to go out on a limb though and guess that Amanda Bynes's character ends up with the least nerdiest kid in the bunch. Y'know, whichever one doesn't look nerdy at all, but because he's wearing glasses is treated like a total outcast... (Reply to this) |
 on Sep 21 2007 01:11 AM wow, stil can't believe amanda bynes has a career? jeez,can someone tell amanda she has run out of her nickelodeon heyday moment and leave. hey, does she have some talent sure, but to star in a picture is beyond stretching. i just hate to think of all those nickelodeon kid stars that she turns out to have the somewhat most meaningful career, because frankly she was never that funny. Stll, she is lucille ball compared to the crap the disney channel keeps producing. its funny that the only talented one from disney land, shia lebouf, escaped their clutches. what disney can't have people who can act, only annoying teen girls that will hopefully be on vh1 someday. God, its so sad how much attention these disney "actors" get but i guess then i might as well as root on amanda, then but hey sorry for runing on a tangent everyone. Still, i know this their will always be some watchable acting in movie not starring dane cook and some perfect babe. so, for those going to see good luck chuck, i hope this method of torture was to your liking. someone please stop that loser cook, the pain is inbearable and he also ruined baseball pennant chase with his horrible playoffs ads. there's only one actober and thanks for craping on it with your acting. oh and jesica alba, babe i worsip your hotness but please your acting credibility is starting to rot away into jlo mode. learn to act or please stop humilating yourself because honey no one is hot enough to overcome horrific acting. except hallie berry, for some reason. (Reply to this) |
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on Sep 21 2007 01:18 AM Note: made a big error in post here's what it read like "Still, i know this their will always be some watchable acting in movie not starring dane cook and some perfect babe" it was meant to be seen like this:***Still, i know anything is more watchable than a movie starring the dreadful dane cook and some poor beauty but talentless babe. this year its my beloved jessica alba and it really peeves me his affleck bad acting will erode what little acting ability jessica has left.* sorry for the interruption, and keep on chugging 3: 10 to yuma! bale and crowe rock! (Reply to this) |
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on Sep 21 2007 08:52 AM Um, are you sure that's not Colin Farrell as Jesse James? (Reply to this) |
 on Sep 21 2007 10:24 AM There's no way Resident Evil is grossing above $20 million this weekend. $13-$17 million seems more likely. (Reply to this) |
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on Sep 21 2007 12:39 PM Not sure what's up with the Amanda Bynes bashing. She is head and shoulders better than most of the other young "actresses" being shoved down our throats today (Hilary Duff, for instance). Granted, I haven't seen any of her TV work; but, she was great in Hairspray and I thought gave a pretty good performance in What a Girl Wants (with Colin Firth). Seems to have a likeability about her and pretty good comedic timing for someone her age. I certainly don't disagree with you about this new movie though, I haven't seen a trailer or TV commercial for it (although it's at about 46% on the tomatometer right now--which isn't too bad for a movie of this type). (Reply to this) |
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on Sep 21 2007 02:44 PM Bynes just needs to be in something other than movies that are specifically aimed at teenage girls. She's not QUITE as bad as Hillary Duff or Linsay Lohan in terms of re-making what are essentially the same movies over and over and over. Hairspray was by no means an "Amanda Bynes movie", but it was successful, and she should take advantage of that success and added exposure to try different projects and move away from the 'tween set since that audience seems to have outgrown here. I still think this week's movie is dead in the water though. Let's see if she attempts anything different post-Hairspray though. As for Resident Evil 3, I think it will do better then the first one, but not quite as good as the second in its opening weekend. I watched it last night and thought it was pretty good, the best of the series so far. Now, I might need to see it again to decide if it was GENUINELY that good or if it was decent and just waaaaaaay better than Apocalypse, which was seriously one of the worst movies I've ever seen in a theater. (Reply to this) |
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