Box Office Guru Preview: Montana Hopes to Win Super Bowl Trophy
The Eye, Strange Wilderness, Over Her Dead Body also vie for weekend crown.
While Brady and Manning duke it out in Phoenix, the $15 movie ticket aims to conquer the multiplexes over Super Bowl weekend. That's the admission price that theaters are charging moviegoers that line up for Disney's Hannah Montana concert film which opens Friday on a wave of fan frenzy that has given the hot pic event-film status with young girls everywhere. But other ladies that got their big break from a television series will enter the weekend race at the North American box office too. Jessica Alba stars in the supernatural thriller The Eye while Eva Longoria Parker headlines the comedy Over Her Dead Body. Guys will be tossed their own entry in the form of the nature comedy Strange Wilderness. Disney and Lionsgate will be the studios competing for the box office trophy as Sony's seven-year streak of ruling Super Bowl weekend will come to an end.
Tween girls who couldn't get their parents to shell out a grand for a scalped ticket for Hannah Montana's live concerts can now cough up a Hamilton and a Lincoln and see the big show at their local multiplex. Disney goes 3D for its special one-week-only engagement of Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert which aims to capitalize on the immense fan base for the Disney Channel superstar. The G-rated musicfest will play mostly to girls but should lure in nearly 100% of its target demographic with what has become a major event film for lovers of all things Hannah. With a trim 74-minute running time, theaters will be able to squeeze in six showtimes per day to maximize their revenue. School teachers nationwide may have to brace for record high absenteeism on Friday.
The Hannah Montana phenomenon has become a cash cow for the studio. Thanks to last year's live concerts which sold out within minutes, fans have wasted no time in pre-buying their movie tickets for Best which has been a top seller all through December and January. Fandango.com reported on Wednesday that the film accounted for a whopping 91% of all tickets purchased with over 1,000 showtimes already sold out coast to coast. Rival MovieTickets.com stated that Best has already joined its all-time top ten list of pre-sales ranking alongside tentpole sequels from franchises such as Harry Potter and The Lord of the Rings. Helping Montana-mania at the box office will be those increased $15 ticket prices which will allow the overall grosses to swell.
Best of Both Worlds could very well be one of those box office surprises that exceeds all expectations thanks to intense demand plus brilliant marketing and distribution. This could be a Borat-type weekend when the film with the fewest theaters actually beats out all of its competitors for the top spot. In fact the numbers could climb really high if parents join their daughters for the show, or if repeat business kicks in with fans seeing the film multiple times since it will only be on the big screen for seven days. The Super Bowl should not be much of a distraction since young females are typically the quadrant least interested in the big game. Hitting the stage in 683 movie theaters with digital 3D facilities, Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert could open to about $17M this weekend.
That Hannah Montana movie.
Jessica Alba won't be singing on any stage but the pregnant actress will hit the big screen for the fourth time in eight months with Lionsgate's new supernatural thriller The Eye. A Hollywood remake of the hit Hong Kong horror flick about a blind woman who sees frightening visions after an eye transplant, the PG-13 film should play to genre fans everywhere over a weekend that welcomes scary movies. Openings for recent fright flicks over Super Bowl weekend include $14.7M for last year's The Messengers, $21.6M for 2006's When A Stranger Calls, and $19M for Boogeyman in 2005. All were Sony releases. All opened at number one. That studio's Screen Gems unit and Lionsgate are the two industry leaders when it comes to mining riches from horror films.
Although there are no other major horror flicks out there, The Eye will still face formidable competition. Hannah Montana is a very different type of film, but it will take some teen girls out of the picture. Young males also have plenty of other choices out there. But Alba is a decent box office draw despite the weak launch of her last thriller Awake which debuted to only $5.9M. The Eye is in a much better position to find success, though. A scary trailer, a creepy one-sheet, a commercially-friendly rating, and a popular star in the lead all will contribute to a solid debut. The Eye opens in 2,436 locations on Friday and could scare up roughly $14M over three days.
Jessica Alba and friend in The Eye.
Eva Longoria Parker headlines her first feature film with Over Her Dead Body which will target women too old to enjoy a Miley Cyrus concert. The PG-13 pic finds the Desperate Housewives actress playing a ghost who haunts a psychic that is falling for her ex-fiance. Paul Rudd and Jason Biggs co-star in the New Line release. Body should skew heavily female and Parker has the potential to one day become a box office draw. But this may not be the vehicle to spark that change. The concept is not very intriguing and mixed reviews will probably keep it from finding a large paying audience. Plus fellow ABC heavyweight Katherine Heigl already has a lock on women with 27 Dresses which has been well received. Opening in 1,977 theaters, Over Her Dead Body could debut to around $6M.
Eva Longoria Parker, Paul Rudd and Lake Bell in Over Her Dead Body.
Paramount targets young men with its new comedy Strange Wilderness which stars Steve Zahn, Justin Long, and Superbad's Jonah Hill. The R-rated film will face many tough challenges in the marketplace such as competition from the Super Bowl and the restrictive rating that will affect much of the core audience's ability to buy tickets. Zahn is no marquee name and is not a reliable anchor for a mainstream comedy. And despite hefty declines, films like Meet the Spartans, Rambo, and Cloverfield will steal away over $20M in combined business from the exact audience Wilderness is trying to reach. Overall interest is not very high so a launch in 1,208 theaters should lead to an opening weekend of around $3M for Strange Wilderness.
Steve Zahn and friend in Strange Wilderness.
Last weekend's front-loaded boy flicks will get shoved aside this time by the girls. After opening at number one, the spoof comedy Meet the Spartans should see a hefty drop thanks to football fever, competition from new releases, and an upfront bow that attracted most fans last weekend. A year ago, Epic Movie fell by 55% in its sophomore session and a similar decline is in store for Spartans. Look for a $8M frame and a ten-day cume of $29M for Fox.
Sylvester Stallone settled for the vice president's job on last weekend's chart with Rambo and with most fans charging theaters in the beginning, not much of an audience will be left. Plus the Lionsgate film lacks the positive vibe that the actor/filmmaker saw with Rocky Balboa last winter. A 55% fall would give Rambo roughly $8M and a sum of $31M after ten days.
Fox could enjoy a solid third frame with its chick flick 27 Dresses which has been holding up well since its strong opening. A 40% decline to $8.5M would give the Heigl hit $57M after 17 days. Diane Lane also could see a reasonably good hold for her crime thriller Untraceable which may drop 40% to $7M for a ten-day tally of $20M. The monster flick Cloverfield fell hard in its second weekend and another sizable drop of 55% could give Paramount $5.5M and a 17-day total of $73M.
LAST YEAR: Super Bowl weekend saw teen girls edge past their moms at the box office as the thriller The Messengers bowed at number one with $14.7M beating out the $13.1M debut of the Diane Keaton pic Because I Said So. Final grosses reached $35.4M for the Sony spookfest and $42.7M for Universal's star-driven comedy. Holdovers rounded out the top five. Epic Movie dropped from the top spot to third with $8.4M, the hit comedy Night at the Museum followed in fourth with $6.4M, and Smokin' Aces placed fifth with $6.1M.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
Tween girls who couldn't get their parents to shell out a grand for a scalped ticket for Hannah Montana's live concerts can now cough up a Hamilton and a Lincoln and see the big show at their local multiplex. Disney goes 3D for its special one-week-only engagement of Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert which aims to capitalize on the immense fan base for the Disney Channel superstar. The G-rated musicfest will play mostly to girls but should lure in nearly 100% of its target demographic with what has become a major event film for lovers of all things Hannah. With a trim 74-minute running time, theaters will be able to squeeze in six showtimes per day to maximize their revenue. School teachers nationwide may have to brace for record high absenteeism on Friday.
The Hannah Montana phenomenon has become a cash cow for the studio. Thanks to last year's live concerts which sold out within minutes, fans have wasted no time in pre-buying their movie tickets for Best which has been a top seller all through December and January. Fandango.com reported on Wednesday that the film accounted for a whopping 91% of all tickets purchased with over 1,000 showtimes already sold out coast to coast. Rival MovieTickets.com stated that Best has already joined its all-time top ten list of pre-sales ranking alongside tentpole sequels from franchises such as Harry Potter and The Lord of the Rings. Helping Montana-mania at the box office will be those increased $15 ticket prices which will allow the overall grosses to swell.
Best of Both Worlds could very well be one of those box office surprises that exceeds all expectations thanks to intense demand plus brilliant marketing and distribution. This could be a Borat-type weekend when the film with the fewest theaters actually beats out all of its competitors for the top spot. In fact the numbers could climb really high if parents join their daughters for the show, or if repeat business kicks in with fans seeing the film multiple times since it will only be on the big screen for seven days. The Super Bowl should not be much of a distraction since young females are typically the quadrant least interested in the big game. Hitting the stage in 683 movie theaters with digital 3D facilities, Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert could open to about $17M this weekend.
That Hannah Montana movie.
Jessica Alba won't be singing on any stage but the pregnant actress will hit the big screen for the fourth time in eight months with Lionsgate's new supernatural thriller The Eye. A Hollywood remake of the hit Hong Kong horror flick about a blind woman who sees frightening visions after an eye transplant, the PG-13 film should play to genre fans everywhere over a weekend that welcomes scary movies. Openings for recent fright flicks over Super Bowl weekend include $14.7M for last year's The Messengers, $21.6M for 2006's When A Stranger Calls, and $19M for Boogeyman in 2005. All were Sony releases. All opened at number one. That studio's Screen Gems unit and Lionsgate are the two industry leaders when it comes to mining riches from horror films.
Although there are no other major horror flicks out there, The Eye will still face formidable competition. Hannah Montana is a very different type of film, but it will take some teen girls out of the picture. Young males also have plenty of other choices out there. But Alba is a decent box office draw despite the weak launch of her last thriller Awake which debuted to only $5.9M. The Eye is in a much better position to find success, though. A scary trailer, a creepy one-sheet, a commercially-friendly rating, and a popular star in the lead all will contribute to a solid debut. The Eye opens in 2,436 locations on Friday and could scare up roughly $14M over three days.
Jessica Alba and friend in The Eye.
Eva Longoria Parker headlines her first feature film with Over Her Dead Body which will target women too old to enjoy a Miley Cyrus concert. The PG-13 pic finds the Desperate Housewives actress playing a ghost who haunts a psychic that is falling for her ex-fiance. Paul Rudd and Jason Biggs co-star in the New Line release. Body should skew heavily female and Parker has the potential to one day become a box office draw. But this may not be the vehicle to spark that change. The concept is not very intriguing and mixed reviews will probably keep it from finding a large paying audience. Plus fellow ABC heavyweight Katherine Heigl already has a lock on women with 27 Dresses which has been well received. Opening in 1,977 theaters, Over Her Dead Body could debut to around $6M.
Eva Longoria Parker, Paul Rudd and Lake Bell in Over Her Dead Body.
Paramount targets young men with its new comedy Strange Wilderness which stars Steve Zahn, Justin Long, and Superbad's Jonah Hill. The R-rated film will face many tough challenges in the marketplace such as competition from the Super Bowl and the restrictive rating that will affect much of the core audience's ability to buy tickets. Zahn is no marquee name and is not a reliable anchor for a mainstream comedy. And despite hefty declines, films like Meet the Spartans, Rambo, and Cloverfield will steal away over $20M in combined business from the exact audience Wilderness is trying to reach. Overall interest is not very high so a launch in 1,208 theaters should lead to an opening weekend of around $3M for Strange Wilderness.
Steve Zahn and friend in Strange Wilderness.
Last weekend's front-loaded boy flicks will get shoved aside this time by the girls. After opening at number one, the spoof comedy Meet the Spartans should see a hefty drop thanks to football fever, competition from new releases, and an upfront bow that attracted most fans last weekend. A year ago, Epic Movie fell by 55% in its sophomore session and a similar decline is in store for Spartans. Look for a $8M frame and a ten-day cume of $29M for Fox.
Sylvester Stallone settled for the vice president's job on last weekend's chart with Rambo and with most fans charging theaters in the beginning, not much of an audience will be left. Plus the Lionsgate film lacks the positive vibe that the actor/filmmaker saw with Rocky Balboa last winter. A 55% fall would give Rambo roughly $8M and a sum of $31M after ten days.
Fox could enjoy a solid third frame with its chick flick 27 Dresses which has been holding up well since its strong opening. A 40% decline to $8.5M would give the Heigl hit $57M after 17 days. Diane Lane also could see a reasonably good hold for her crime thriller Untraceable which may drop 40% to $7M for a ten-day tally of $20M. The monster flick Cloverfield fell hard in its second weekend and another sizable drop of 55% could give Paramount $5.5M and a 17-day total of $73M.
LAST YEAR: Super Bowl weekend saw teen girls edge past their moms at the box office as the thriller The Messengers bowed at number one with $14.7M beating out the $13.1M debut of the Diane Keaton pic Because I Said So. Final grosses reached $35.4M for the Sony spookfest and $42.7M for Universal's star-driven comedy. Holdovers rounded out the top five. Epic Movie dropped from the top spot to third with $8.4M, the hit comedy Night at the Museum followed in fourth with $6.4M, and Smokin' Aces placed fifth with $6.1M.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
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(1-10 of 10 posts) | Reply
 on Jan 31 2008 05:51 PM Hannah Montana - $16 million The Eye - $15 million 27 Dresses - $9 million (Reply to this) |
 on Jan 31 2008 06:08 PM I pity the fool that pays 15 bucks to see this movie in the theater. Or any movie, for that matter. 15 muchah****ing bucks??! (Reply to this) |
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on Jan 31 2008 08:12 PM In reply to this comment (#1544794) It was destined to happen with this movie, since the Hannah/Miley tour COMPLETELY RULED over concert arenas for most of last year. And it looks like she's about to make history yet AGAIN at the cineplex this weekend. I pity any other movie that dares to open against this runaway phenomenon. (Reply to this) |
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on Jan 31 2008 11:19 PM This is really the only time of year that Hannah would make decent money with a $15 ticket price, in my opinion. You would never see a movie like this try and break the bank within the rest of the year. January and February are historically low on blockbusters, with the exception being Cloverfield. Therefore, Disney knew that their only chance would have to be January or February. Sorry Ktomas, but it is the other way around. It is the Disney studio that I pity to a certain extent. I applaud them for showing the movie at the right time. The marketing strategy is a no-brainer. Yet, let's talk balls to the wall for a sec. Opening in the deadest part of the year, on Super Bowl weekend, and for only a week is a "get-in and get-out" strategy that is more "p ussy" than anything else. If they really wanted to test the popularity, then they should leave it alone and see how much it does. I guarantee you that the flick wouldn't do nearly as much its first week if it was not being limited to seven days. Therefore, she is going to make, as you say, "history" by cheating the system. Sorry, she could never hang with the big boys! This is not destiny! (Reply to this) |
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on Feb 01 2008 01:07 AM In reply to this comment (#1545347) Just came back from watching the Hannah Montana 3D concert, and I loved it! Thank god I work at a movie theater, and thank god for that, because it'd suck having to pay $15 for a ticket, but I'm a huge Hannah/Miley fan, so I probably would've ended up doing it anyways. For all that are planning to watch it, I hope you get your tickets! All of the showings at my theater are sold out all day on Friday (and have been sold out since mid December). Hecka crazy! (Reply to this) |
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on Feb 01 2008 08:50 AM I think everyone is still underestimating the popularity of Hannah Montana. Movies like Borat, Pirates 2, and Spider-Man all had per screen averages of around $30,000. The brilliance of what's happening here is that even though the huge majority of Hannah Montana's audience would normally be paying the discounted child price, here they're all going to be paying the jacked up $15 ticket price, which is more than double the national average (according to boxofficemojo.com). Could Hannah Montana have a $60,000 per screen average? If it does, it would earn as much as $40 million this weekend, possibly even breaking Cloverfield's record for biggest January opening ever. I'm not saying I think it will happen, but the potential is there, thanks to the evil genius of the $15 child's ticket. Even if it doesn't reach those heights, it should still at very least make over $30,000 per screen, which would translate to a minimum of $21 million for the weekend, though much, much more is likely. (Reply to this) |
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on Feb 01 2008 08:53 AM I think everyone is still underestimating the popularity of Hannah Montana. Movies like Borat, Pirates 2, and Spider-Man all had per screen averages of around $30,000. The brilliance of what's happening here is that even though the huge majority of Hannah Montana's audience would normally be paying the discounted child price, here they're all going to be paying the jacked up $15 ticket price, which is more than double the national average (according to boxofficemojo.com). Could Hannah Montana have a $60,000 per screen average? If it does, it would earn as much as $40 million this weekend, possibly even breaking Cloverfield's record for biggest January opening ever. I'm not saying I think it will happen, but the potential is there, thanks to the evil genius of the $15 child's ticket. Even if it doesn't reach those heights, it should still at very least make over $30,000 per screen, which would translate to a minimum of $21 million for the weekend, though much, much more is likely. (Reply to this) |
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on Feb 01 2008 10:12 AM Don't expect the full 17 song show from the tour! Fans, Since the movie's only 1 hr.14 mins. long, don't expect to see the full actual concert from the live tour. Miley's set alone was 1 hr. 25 mins. so since the movie has the Jonas Bros in it too, there' no way that could all fit in the movie. This is wrong. Fans have to pay $15 to see this film so we should get the full 25 song concert (Jonas and Miley combined)! Go to www.hannahmontanaconcert.net to see the full Miley/Hannah concert online! (Reply to this) |
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on Feb 01 2008 12:45 PM In reply to this comment (#1545379) Did you really just say "Hecka crazy"? Wow...just, wow. (Reply to this) |
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on Feb 02 2008 09:03 AM Hannah Montana made $8.5 million on Friday. A few factors will determine how much it makes over the rest of the weekend: - It's a kid flick, so it should play very well over the rest of the weekend. - It had huge anticipation, so it could be more front-loaded. - The Superbowl tends to kill movies on Sunday. No matter what, it should be able to make somewhere in the mid-$20 millions. I'm gonna say about $25 million for the weekend, which is good for an astounding $37,000 per screen. Meanwhile, The Eye did well with $4.9 million, Over Her Dead Body bombed with only $1.3 million, and Rambo and Meet the Spartans both crashed, dropping 67% each. (Reply to this) |
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