Box Office Guru Preview: Indiana Jones Set To Conquer Multiplexes
No other films bother to show up this weekend.
The summer movie season gets a big shot in the arm as the highly anticipated launch of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull kicks off the extended Memorial Day holiday weekend a day early with its Thursday bow. The rest of Hollywood steered clear of opening anything against the Spielberg-Lucas-Ford reunion so a towering total is expected over its five-day debut period. Paramount unleashed the PG-13 adventure sequel in a mammoth 4,260 theaters making it the third widest opening in history after only Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix which bowed in 4,362 and 4,285 locations last summer, respectively.
The new tale arrives 19 years after the previous installment Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. That film debuted to a then-stunning $37M from 2,327 theaters over the same four-day holiday on its way to a powerful $197.2M making it the second biggest grosser of 1989 trailing the $251.2M of Batman. The Caped Crusader and the Joker will give Indy a run for his money during this summer's box office race as well. At today's ticket prices, Crusade's tally would stand at roughly $330M.
Crystal Skull puts Steven Spielberg back in the director's chair, George Lucas back to his writing and executive producing chores, and Harrison Ford back into the starring role. Shia Labeouf and Cate Blanchett join the cast to help diversify the film's appeal and help it stay relevant to younger folks who have never seen an Indiana Jones flick on the big screen before. In fact Shia was in diapers when Dr. Jones went on his last adventure. The story fast forwards from the past films by two decades to 1957 and finds the whip-cracking adventurer trying to solve the mystery behind ancient skulls that wield a mysterious power and must be returned to their rightful place in South America.
Dr. Jones and the crew are back.
There are numerous box office records that Crystal Skull will try to break in the coming days. The largest Memorial Day holiday opening was generated a year ago by At World's End with $139.8M over the Friday-to-Monday span. That sequel also enjoyed the biggest worldwide launch with a gargantuan $404M in six days globally. The best five-day start for any film was the $172.8M hauled in by Star Wars Episode III in May 2005. That would amount to roughly $190M at today's prices.
Reviews for Crystal Skull have generally been positive. For a much-awaited sequel with tons of hype, they are more than good enough to drive in foot traffic. And if all the publicity wasn't enough, the extra jolt of buzz from its star-studded world premiere at Cannes only made the spotlight brighter.
Competition that Spielberg and gang will face this weekend will be weaker than anyone would have guessed just a couple of weeks ago. With both Speed Racer and The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian performing below expectations, the field is basically clear for Skull to not just rule, but to dominate with an iron fist. Plus no other film opens in wide release this weekend. The rest of the top five combined looks to gross roughly $80M over four days which would be the worst showing for this holiday weekend since 1999. Normally there is much more depth in the marketplace at this time.
With the Thursday opening, Paramount is letting hardcore fans see the film a bit early allowing for more seats over the weekend to open up for the rest of the public. Sure it dilutes down the weekend figure, but the strategy is more about making as much money as possible and not about setting records. Lucas launched his Star Wars prequels with mid-week May bows as well and is too old to care about commercial milestones anymore. Skull's Thursday may not break the opening day record currently held by Spider-Man 3's $59.8M. Since Indy skews older more of the audience will wait for the weekend to see it. Typically films heavy on digital effects draw the biggest crowds on opening day like Spider-Man, Pirates, Star Wars, and Harry Potter films. Indiana Jones is old-school Hollywood that is more driven by stunts like the James Bond and Jason Bourne pictures. A Thursday debut in the neighborhood of $40M could result. The official four-day weekend might reach the vicinity of $125M giving Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull around $165M across the five-day opening weekend span.
Indiana Jones finds himself in familiar territory.
For the last five consecutive years, the number two film over the Memorial Day holiday frame managed to gross over $40M over four days. That streak might come to an end if Disney's The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian doesn't post a strong hold this weekend. PG-rated family films typically witness small declines on this session, however Caspian may play more like a sequel and nostalgic parents could be more in the mood to take the gang to see Dr. Jones despite the PG-13 rating. The first Narnia, The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe, fell by 51% when it faced the launch of King Kong in December 2005. For Prince Caspian, its four-day holiday tally this weekend could fall by 30% from its three-day debut and hit about $38M. That would boost the 11-day total for the fantasy flick to $107M.
Iron Man has been nothing short of an overachiever for Paramount this month. A third-place finish is guaranteed and even though the studio is launching a new Indy saga, its effects-driven super hero film will remain a popular entry with those who have heard great buzz plus with others who will line up for repeat viewing. The Robert Downey Jr. vehicle might drop by 25% to roughly $24M and lift its domestic haul to $256M as it becomes the 45th film to join the quarter-billion club.
Fox has had great legs for its star-driven comedy What Happens in Vegas which will be a formidable choice for young women not interested in a geezer archaeologist, kids in fantasyland, or a metallic comic book dude. As the Sex and the City crowd waits a week for SJP and her gal pals to hit the multiplexes, a date with Cameron and Ashton could be in order over the holiday weekend. Look for the Friday-to-Monday take dip 15% from last weekend's three-day figure to about $12M. That would put boost the winnings to $57M.
Poor Speed Racer has been neglected by moviegoers in every country. Nobody has interest in paying top dollar for this colorful concoction. A 35% fall to around $5M could result giving Warner Bros. a dull $38M to date.
LAST YEAR: Johnny Depp and mates conquered the Memorial Day holiday box office with a record haul of $139.8M over four days for Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End and $153M including Thursday grosses from showtimes that began at 8pm. Worldwide the adventure sequel shattered another record with a stunning $404M in global sales in the first six days accounting for 42% of its eventual $961M tally. In North America, the Disney smash sailed to $309.4M which narrowly edged out the first Pirates and fell $114M below the total of the middle installment. Dropping to second was Paramount's Shrek the Third with a massive $67M sophomore take, however sales tumbled by 56% thanks to bad word-of-mouth. The month's other mega threequel Spider-Man 3 ranked third with $18.1M and vaulted past the triple-century mark. Moviegoers spent a jaw-dropping $225M on seeing the trio of threequels over the holiday frame. Rounding out the top five with $4M each were the horror flick Bug and the indie comedy Waitress with the latter posting a much stronger average.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru.com
The new tale arrives 19 years after the previous installment Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. That film debuted to a then-stunning $37M from 2,327 theaters over the same four-day holiday on its way to a powerful $197.2M making it the second biggest grosser of 1989 trailing the $251.2M of Batman. The Caped Crusader and the Joker will give Indy a run for his money during this summer's box office race as well. At today's ticket prices, Crusade's tally would stand at roughly $330M.
Crystal Skull puts Steven Spielberg back in the director's chair, George Lucas back to his writing and executive producing chores, and Harrison Ford back into the starring role. Shia Labeouf and Cate Blanchett join the cast to help diversify the film's appeal and help it stay relevant to younger folks who have never seen an Indiana Jones flick on the big screen before. In fact Shia was in diapers when Dr. Jones went on his last adventure. The story fast forwards from the past films by two decades to 1957 and finds the whip-cracking adventurer trying to solve the mystery behind ancient skulls that wield a mysterious power and must be returned to their rightful place in South America.
Dr. Jones and the crew are back.
There are numerous box office records that Crystal Skull will try to break in the coming days. The largest Memorial Day holiday opening was generated a year ago by At World's End with $139.8M over the Friday-to-Monday span. That sequel also enjoyed the biggest worldwide launch with a gargantuan $404M in six days globally. The best five-day start for any film was the $172.8M hauled in by Star Wars Episode III in May 2005. That would amount to roughly $190M at today's prices.
Reviews for Crystal Skull have generally been positive. For a much-awaited sequel with tons of hype, they are more than good enough to drive in foot traffic. And if all the publicity wasn't enough, the extra jolt of buzz from its star-studded world premiere at Cannes only made the spotlight brighter.
Competition that Spielberg and gang will face this weekend will be weaker than anyone would have guessed just a couple of weeks ago. With both Speed Racer and The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian performing below expectations, the field is basically clear for Skull to not just rule, but to dominate with an iron fist. Plus no other film opens in wide release this weekend. The rest of the top five combined looks to gross roughly $80M over four days which would be the worst showing for this holiday weekend since 1999. Normally there is much more depth in the marketplace at this time.
With the Thursday opening, Paramount is letting hardcore fans see the film a bit early allowing for more seats over the weekend to open up for the rest of the public. Sure it dilutes down the weekend figure, but the strategy is more about making as much money as possible and not about setting records. Lucas launched his Star Wars prequels with mid-week May bows as well and is too old to care about commercial milestones anymore. Skull's Thursday may not break the opening day record currently held by Spider-Man 3's $59.8M. Since Indy skews older more of the audience will wait for the weekend to see it. Typically films heavy on digital effects draw the biggest crowds on opening day like Spider-Man, Pirates, Star Wars, and Harry Potter films. Indiana Jones is old-school Hollywood that is more driven by stunts like the James Bond and Jason Bourne pictures. A Thursday debut in the neighborhood of $40M could result. The official four-day weekend might reach the vicinity of $125M giving Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull around $165M across the five-day opening weekend span.
Indiana Jones finds himself in familiar territory.
For the last five consecutive years, the number two film over the Memorial Day holiday frame managed to gross over $40M over four days. That streak might come to an end if Disney's The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian doesn't post a strong hold this weekend. PG-rated family films typically witness small declines on this session, however Caspian may play more like a sequel and nostalgic parents could be more in the mood to take the gang to see Dr. Jones despite the PG-13 rating. The first Narnia, The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe, fell by 51% when it faced the launch of King Kong in December 2005. For Prince Caspian, its four-day holiday tally this weekend could fall by 30% from its three-day debut and hit about $38M. That would boost the 11-day total for the fantasy flick to $107M.
Iron Man has been nothing short of an overachiever for Paramount this month. A third-place finish is guaranteed and even though the studio is launching a new Indy saga, its effects-driven super hero film will remain a popular entry with those who have heard great buzz plus with others who will line up for repeat viewing. The Robert Downey Jr. vehicle might drop by 25% to roughly $24M and lift its domestic haul to $256M as it becomes the 45th film to join the quarter-billion club.
Fox has had great legs for its star-driven comedy What Happens in Vegas which will be a formidable choice for young women not interested in a geezer archaeologist, kids in fantasyland, or a metallic comic book dude. As the Sex and the City crowd waits a week for SJP and her gal pals to hit the multiplexes, a date with Cameron and Ashton could be in order over the holiday weekend. Look for the Friday-to-Monday take dip 15% from last weekend's three-day figure to about $12M. That would put boost the winnings to $57M.
Poor Speed Racer has been neglected by moviegoers in every country. Nobody has interest in paying top dollar for this colorful concoction. A 35% fall to around $5M could result giving Warner Bros. a dull $38M to date.
LAST YEAR: Johnny Depp and mates conquered the Memorial Day holiday box office with a record haul of $139.8M over four days for Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End and $153M including Thursday grosses from showtimes that began at 8pm. Worldwide the adventure sequel shattered another record with a stunning $404M in global sales in the first six days accounting for 42% of its eventual $961M tally. In North America, the Disney smash sailed to $309.4M which narrowly edged out the first Pirates and fell $114M below the total of the middle installment. Dropping to second was Paramount's Shrek the Third with a massive $67M sophomore take, however sales tumbled by 56% thanks to bad word-of-mouth. The month's other mega threequel Spider-Man 3 ranked third with $18.1M and vaulted past the triple-century mark. Moviegoers spent a jaw-dropping $225M on seeing the trio of threequels over the holiday frame. Rounding out the top five with $4M each were the horror flick Bug and the indie comedy Waitress with the latter posting a much stronger average.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru.com
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(1-20 of 28 posts) | Reply
 on May 22 2008 05:13 PM First! (Reply to this) |
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on May 22 2008 05:17 PM Hope Indy breaks the bank... (Reply to this) |
 on May 22 2008 05:23 PM I prey to god Indiana Jones makes a trillion dollars. (Reply to this) |
 on May 22 2008 06:33 PM Indy will be making a pile of $$$ hand over fist this long weekend. If any movie will gross $300 million plus this year, it's this. (Reply to this) |
 on May 22 2008 07:17 PM I loved Indy I hope the best for it, I know I am going to see it 2 more times this weekend. (Reply to this) |
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on May 22 2008 09:30 PM I would have loved Indy to make it big but I hope it BOMBS! These Dooshbag film makers (LUCAS!) need to understand that CGI overdone no matter how expensive it is wrecks movies!! I saw it, it sucks! No wonder they tried so hard to stop it being reviewed before it opened! CGI gofers, aliens, cliffs, cars, ants, whats next CGI Harrison Ford! I grew up on these movies and I wont be adding this new one to my collection! (Reply to this) |
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on May 22 2008 09:34 PM In reply to this comment (#1747292) Firstly, stop the CGI hating... it can do good things for movies, if used correctly. Secondly, notice how 5 days before it opened there were about a page of reviews? You are obviously still trying to achieve an IQ level that has 3 digits. (Reply to this) |
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on May 22 2008 10:43 PM Indy was good and it will make a ton of cash and I'm sure Lucas and Spielberg will be swimming in there own lakes of cash by Monday. for those that hated it and hope it bombs guess what u already paid the ticket price and thats all they need to make a profit off your back so shut it. (Reply to this) |
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on May 22 2008 11:05 PM In reply to this comment (#1747301) I don't hate CGI, Ironman was fantastic. Maybe CGI should be used to complement live action and not just replace it though. How about using it when it's needed and not all the time. C'mon tell me there arnt some stunt gofers out there that that couldn't have done a better job! sam.chomnoky. Rotten Tomatoes is is a movie Forum with differing opinions so don't get all crybaby on us when someone doesn't like a movie that you do. In the mean time I'll try to achieve a higher IQ and you can try to talk your older brother and sister out of breeding and making more of you. Enjoy your next Monster truck rally. (Reply to this) |
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on May 22 2008 11:28 PM GreenBastard, I was correcting you, and your opinion doesn't really have anything to back it up besides you didn't like the CGI. Anyways i never insulted your opinion, i insulted your intelligence and thats about it. Also don't get so worked up. (Reply to this) |
 on May 23 2008 12:42 AM Is it just me but how about that interesting note Gitesh Pandya brought up on the box office history of Indy and Bats. I never thought about it but I never realize Batman trounced the Indy 3 so well. I wonder if Lucas/ spielberg are going to pay attention to how much Dark Knight makes. I bet it would destroy if another Batman movie made more money than Indy... again. Thank you Gitesh Pandya for giving this summer another facinating new angle to watch for. Also, why is there so much hope this movie breaks records? Seriously why do you guys care so much that this movie be king of the Box office recordS? A movie that really had no chance to be one of the three best movies in its own series, should not be an all time box office hit. What should be an ideal movie for everyone to root for a box office record: is the orginal movie or its immediate sequel. Are we not sightly ashamed that second sequels like Shrek 3, Pirates 3 Spidey 3 and X-men 3 make so much box office money and give us so little in return? These usually descending in quality sequels should be, ideally, greeted with far less box office success, especially of the story keeps getting worse. So, please i am hoping Indy doesn't break all the records (Reply to this) |
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on May 23 2008 05:28 AM Lol @ Indy IV haters. (Reply to this) |
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on May 23 2008 05:49 AM "no gimy, lucas has very little to do with it...it'll be good" yeah frikkin right. a big fat I TOLD YA SO is in order for you dorks who reassured everybody. while i was entertained, it was bad at certain scenes. i was also entertained at how bad Ghost Rider was(and that popped in my head watching Indy) so keep that in mind. sound effects ripped from star wars? DIALOGUE ripped from star wars? i laughed through alot of it because it was so bad. the acting, the fact that Ford's stunt double looked nothing like him, the stunts in general, the storyline, the "henry jones" line that the old guy kept saying over...and over...and over. exactly what i expected from a Lucas driven franchise that hasn't been seen in almost 20 years. Karen Allen wasn't fresh anymore, she just seemed out of place most of the time. Ford even had lines and moments where he was bad, which only Lucas can do to a good actor. Winestone was actually pretty good, as was Shia. its sad that Lucas is so rich and his cgi still pales in comparison to other movies. i'd almost compare this to..gulp...Menace. for those who say its good, all i have to do is remind you of that fridge scene. to me, that was so bad and so unnecessary that it looked like they were ripping it off from the scene in The Hulk(ang lee's version) where he jumps a mile or so because of the desert explosions. but my favorite "oh god, no they didn't" moment was...da da daaaaa...when i saw the Janitor from Scrubs. it went downhill from there in terms of quality movie making. major props to Sean Connery(which they seemed to milk a bit too long in the movie) for not getting involved in this. he would have made it alot better but i can see why he read the script and went "eh, no thanks". bring on the Dark Knight...i wanna see a quality sequel that is made to entertain...not just drain our wallets. (Reply to this) |
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on May 23 2008 06:02 AM by the way, it'll make a crapload of money simply based on the name. but long term?? eh, i don't see it. its just not a quality movie by any means. the vibe in the theater and from the people i went with was basically in line with "what the h3ll?" way of thinking i had. its not an Indy movie, its more AI meets the Mummy Returns. TDK should destroy it. i do have a question pertaining greedy Lucas, why not go for a PG rating? maybe the end scene, and the unnecessary language...thats all that i saw that might have warranted a pg-13. i was a bit surprised, watching it, that they didn't go for a more broad audience since it was only made to make a quick buck in the first place. but it didn't matter, parents brought in kids as young as 1-2(and luckily, let them sh3t their pants and not change them the entire movie). (Reply to this) |
 on May 23 2008 06:27 AM I know im being unrealistic but i hope Indiana beats Titantic (Reply to this) |
 on May 23 2008 09:00 AM Indy was great! Just saw it last night and had a very fun time. The film is what movies should be (used to be) about: action, grand anventure, good charactures, whit and a sense of wonder. Indy 4 had the feel of the other movies and a enough nostalga to warm anyone's heart. I can't wait to see it again. (Reply to this) |
 on May 23 2008 10:12 AM I liked Indy. These movies have always been cornball fun, including "Raiders." I mean, just listen to that punch sound effect they use every time. It sounds like a baseball bat hitting a sack of wet meat. Normally I'm not one to hide behind the excuse that "the originals weren't really that great," as Lucas is wont to do with his Star Wars prequels, but let's be honest about what Indiana Jones really is. The vine-swinging I could've done without. (Reply to this) |
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on May 23 2008 11:52 AM Gimy: actually, at the ripe old age of 12 when I saw 'Last Crusade,' I noticed that even back then they had ripped off sound effects from star wars- case in point: when Indy and the blonde chick or on the boat escaping the 'knights of the cruciform sword' in Venice, the sound effects are straight out of 'Empire.' ...And the dialogue has ALWAYS been Han & Leia (every babe Indy spars with), courtesy of George Lucas and Harrison Ford. I'm not saying this movie won't suck but just that saying it sucks because it does certain things that the older movies did is not a completely fair way to judge. (Reply to this) |
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on May 23 2008 01:23 PM The $40 mil prediction for Thursday is WAY off according to the first estimates. Indy only managed to make $25 million on its opening day. I think word of mouth about this being Indiana Jones vs the Aliens is going to REALLY hurt it. The "positive" reviews I have read seem to be more about nostalgia than reviews of the actual 4th Indy movie. Of course, I hated the third one, so I wasn't really eager for this anyway. I also still remember what Spielberg did to the The Lost World (not to mention what Lucas did to Star Wars). I lost interest in this when Lucas vetoed Frank Darabont's script and have seen nothing to convince me that Ford and Spielberg really have their hearts in it. Lastly, who is this terrible actress "Cate Blanchett"? She has the same name as one of the best actresses of her generation. Weird. (Reply to this) |
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on May 23 2008 02:20 PM TombDog...it sucks, i saw it last night. i actually didn't notice the prior dialogue and i've seen the 3 previous movies a bajillion times. the flaws in this flick are so obvious...it just stands out that much more i guess. i know Lucas ALWAYS has that famous "scream" in every one of his flicks but, the similarities in this one was just magnified by a million. it was just really disappointing to see a great franchise fail so badly when it didn't need to. they should have thrown a crapload of money to Connery to be honest, he would have lightened the mood and not made the dialogue so bad in certain scenes. i'm really really really really hoping they don't do another one. i'm pretty sure if they do...Shia will find a meteor in the Sahara Desert and upon unfreezing the creature inside...it'll be frikkin Jar Jar Binks... i'm just warning those who haven't seen it yet, don't go with high expectations. it's like meeting up with an ex girlfriend you haven't seen in a few years. you miss it so much you get all pumped to find...eh, cellulite, gravity's taking over and...she spilled cottage cheese in her undies. just not the same years (Reply to this) |
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